On the way of energy supplement for new energy vehicles, whether to "charge" or "exchange" has always been a hot topic in the industry. In the past 2021, China's power exchange industry model has almost ushered in an unprecedented leap forward development.

In this year, the country carried out the pilot of power replacement, 11 cities took the lead in launching the pilot of power replacement mode, and the first basic general national standard, Safety Requirements for Electric Vehicle Power Replacement, was officially implemented; In the same year, the electricity exchange ecosystem was gradually expanded, and industry giants such as the State Grid, the State Power Investment Corporation of China, and Sinopec entered the market one after another, while enterprises such as Aodong, Weilai, and Geely, which had earlier been in the field of electricity exchange, continued to work hard. According to the latest data of China Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Promotion Alliance, as of November 2021, there are 1192 replacement stations in China, with a year-on-year growth of more than 100%.

Compared with the current mainstream charging mode, what is the reason for the rapid development of the power change mode? Under the "3060" dual carbon target, what are the main application scenarios of power exchange in the future? In addition to the current application pilot, how far is this mode from large-scale application? At the "2021 Second China International Power Change Mode Industry Conference" held recently, industry guests and enterprise representatives launched a debate on the above issues.

When it comes to the reasons for the rapid development of power exchange mode, we have to mention its own unique advantages. At this conference, Zhou Libo, the director of the Standardization Management Center of the China Electricity Council (CEC), analyzed the advantages of the power exchange mode from five aspects: users, car enterprises, batteries, power grids, the state and society.

First of all, at the user level, the power change mode can provide the same convenient and fast service as the fuel truck refueling; At the same time, the "battery lease" can reduce the user's car purchase cost; In addition, it can meet the needs of users for high-frequency power supply and improve the operation efficiency.

At the level of vehicle enterprises, changing power can reduce the carrying capacity of batteries and improve the energy efficiency of the whole vehicle; Vehicle electricity separation can reduce the sales cost and battery maintenance cost of vehicle enterprises, and improve capital utilization.

At the battery level, the service life of the power battery is improved through specialized charging and maintenance of the battery, and the economy of the electric vehicle is improved; While the separation of vehicle and electricity brings convenience to users and enterprises, it also makes the battery assets return to the use attribute, which helps to promote the circulation of batteries and improve the use efficiency; Through the centralized management, echelon utilization, recycling and other operation methods of batteries, sustainable profits can be achieved under the closed-loop state; The compatibility of the replacement battery can also promote the unification of standards and technologies.

On the grid level, for the same number of vehicles, the charging power of the change mode is only 1/4 to 1/2 of that of the charging mode, which can significantly reduce the impact on the grid load and the grid; For power change, the power battery can be charged by valley power to avoid peak charging; At the same time, the power exchange can also participate in the grid demand response, release excess power to the grid during the peak hours of daytime power consumption, and help the grid meet the peak load requirements.

At the national and social level, under the power exchange mode, the automobile enterprises rely less on the national subsidy policy, which is conducive to the rapid rise of the electric vehicle industry.

It is worth mentioning that, based on the advantages of power exchange and the continuous increase of policies, in 2021, in addition to the continuous expansion of the power exchange ecosystem, all enterprises that plan to replace power will also publish their own power exchange development plans.

By 2025, the State Grid plans to build more than 1000 public and commercial power exchange stations; The State Power Investment Corporation plans to invest and hold 4000 replacement power stations; Sinopec plans to build 5000 charging and changing power stations; Weilai plans to build more than 4000 power stations; Geely plans to operate 5000 smart power stations; The goal of Austria Mobile is the most radical. It plans to build 10000 replacement power stations by 2025. According to the latest forecast of CICC, it is estimated that by 2025, the number of new energy vehicle power stations will reach 22000 to 26000, which shows the great development potential of the power exchange market.

The power exchange is mainly oriented to the B end, and the heavy truck becomes the new power exchange force

In terms of the actual application scenario of the power exchange mode, Chen Quanshi, a professor at Tsinghua University, said that at present, it is mainly for the B end, and the challenge for the C end is great. "It is difficult to change the power of private vehicles. The batteries are different for different brand models, different voltage systems, and different operating vehicles of B end taxi companies, bus companies, and transportation companies are all designed in a unified way."

As for this development path, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also clearly pointed out in the notice of launching the pilot application of the new energy vehicle power replacement mode in May 2021 that it is encouraged to take the lead in public areas such as public transport, taxi, urban logistics distribution, ports, mines, etc. At present, taxi, online car hailing and other public transport fields have indeed become the main force of power exchange mode.

It is worth noting that, in addition to commercial vehicles in the public domain, commercial vehicle heavy trucks have become a new force in the power exchange mode. Because, driven by the "3060" dual carbon goal, heavy trucks that account for 2/3 of the carbon emissions in the transportation field have become the focus of national adjustment. In addition to the development of hydrogen fuel cell, the heavy trucks that change electricity have also become a major direction of development.

Data shows that compared with fuel vehicles, every 1000 new energy heavy trucks can reduce 140000 tons of carbon dioxide emissions and 12500 tons of pollutant emissions annually, and reduce energy consumption costs by 5% - 10%. "Heavy trucks cause a lot of pollution, but electric heavy trucks are very heavy, and there are many goods to be pulled. It is difficult for traditional charging methods to meet their use requirements, so heavy trucks are encouraged to replace power." Wang Zidong said that the replacement of heavy trucks can be quickly supplemented to solve the problem of working aspects. The random allocation of working time can be applied to special line transportation, branch line short transfer, port inward transfer, trunk line transportation and other scenarios.

Stimulated by the "dual carbon" goal, the new energy commercial vehicle market including heavy trucks will rebound after four consecutive years of decline in 2021. Data shows that from January to October 2021, the cumulative sales of new energy commercial vehicles will be 126600, with a year-on-year growth of 55.88%. To be specific, the sales area of heavy trucks for electricity replacement is concentrated in key areas for air pollution prevention, with more than 90% of them in Beijing Tianjin Hebei and surrounding areas, Fenwei Plain and Yangtze River Delta. The analysis indicates that the sales volume of new energy commercial vehicles will exceed 160000 in 2021.

Liu Xubao, deputy director of the Green Power Transportation Industry Innovation Center of the State Power Investment Corporation, said that by 2030, the penetration rate of China's new energy heavy truck market will exceed 50%, the market share will exceed 5 million vehicles, the investment layout for power stations will exceed 40000, and the new market size is estimated to exceed 10 trillion yuan in the next decade.

In fact, after years of exploration in the industry, from the current practical application results, the power change mode is more suitable for commercial vehicles and commercial passenger vehicles. In the field of private passenger vehicles, the industry generally believes that battery standards are the biggest constraint.

The energy supplement system of new energy vehicles is not a single charging or power replacement. Both charging and power replacement have their own application scenarios. In the subdivisions of public transport and transportation, there is no doubt about the benefits and development prospects of power replacement, while in the private consumer end, charging or qualified power replacement have a larger development space. However, no matter what kind of method, the most appropriate energy supplement method has always been the focus of the whole industry for different user scenarios and needs. It is expected that with the joint efforts of the whole industry, a rechargeable, replaceable and scalable energy supplement system will be popularized as soon as possible.